Deterministic wind data available up to 5 days

Starting with the 2024 season, the National Hurricane Center extended tropical-storm-force wind radii forecasts out to days four and five. Previously, this forecast information only went out to day three.
HURREVAC now incorporates this extended forecast data, which lets users gather more information about when tropical-storm-force winds could arrive. This change is reflected in several areas of the program:

  • Forecast Wind Field (Wind Rings) used to advance no further than 69 hours, and can now be animated along the full length of the forecast.
  • Wind SwathForecast – Deterministic and Forecast – Probabilistic were both extended from three days to five days.
  • Wind Timing Report for a Location has a longer period of deterministic timing information for the 34-kt and 50-kt thresholds.
  • Deterministic Wind Timing Report: refer to the updated report description for details. One change of note: a cell now lists “No Data” when the deterministic forecast does not reach that threshold. Previously, this was listed as “n/a.”

NOTE: As in previous seasons, hurricane-force winds are still forecast to day two by the NHC, but extrapolated to day three in HURREVAC when applicable. Hurricane winds are not depicted beyond three days in HURREVAC. Therefore, even if the track forecast indicates a hurricane four or five days into the future, the hurricane-force wind fields and swaths are not plotted beyond three days, and reports do not show timing of hurricane winds beyond 69 hours. Users are encouraged to refer to Text Advisories and probabilistic products to fully assess a storm’s intensity, hazards, and uncertainty.

This change does not affect the Error Cone plus Fringe Winds which still shows a hatched area for the next three days of the forecast.

  • Posted by John Boyer
  • On August 23, 2024